2021 Food Trends - Professional forecasters' selection
Proclamation of food trends by professionals abound at this time of year. A Covid-19 year is no exception. Multiple sources were canvassed to create this list of forecasts to determine what we will eat and drink in 2021. Some trends were already identified by you, the readers, in last week’s post. Others are new.
For years, my go-to for the best analysis of what to expect starts with Michael Whitman, the international food and restaurant consultant, with his annual report, “Baum + Whiteman Hottest Food & Beverage Trends in Restaurants & Hotels.” Naturally, the NYT’s also has an authoritative grasp of trends with their ever-expanding food department. Long-standing consumer publications such as Food & Wine, Real Simple, Forbes, and Martha Stewart Living were consulted as well. Delish and the Huffington Post on-line sites were included as reliable outlets from new media. What follows is a compilation of trends which were identified at least twice by these eight sources.
Increased home cooking
With our continued hunkering down at home, Americans will spend even more time in the kitchen. The whole family is now getting in on the act preparing recipes for comfort foods, experimenting with exotic spices and ingredients available on-line, and assembling restaurant-quality meal kits. With the proliferation of virtual food classes, home cooks will become even more competent and confident with their skill set. Food-delivery apps will become even more efficient (for example Fresh Direct, Instacart, Whole Foods and Farm to Table). Their increased use is forecasted to stay with us even post pandemic.
Food waste/accountability
The more Americans cook at home, the greater their awareness of food waste. Vegetable peelings and leftover chicken bones are being turned into broths. Opting for biodegradable food containers and the use of less plastic has risen especially given our increased consciousness of protecting the earth. Consumers and the restaurant industry alike are looking for ways to support issues of food insecurity financially as well as by volunteering time. Improved food service apps are enabling restaurants to send leftover foods to homeless shelters and consumer food banks. The cult admiration for Spanish-American chef and humanitarian, José Andrés —whose non-profit World Central Kitchen provides meals in the wake of natural disasters—will continue to grow exponentially to rock star status.
Cooking and eating globally
With restricted travel and often reduced income, consumers are looking to fulfill their need for the exotic by exploring ethnic cuisines, either by preparing them at home or ordering meals on-line. Korean food has been slowly growing in popularity with small restaurants and tons of kimchi cropping up like mushrooms after a fall rain. Several years ago, Dr. Jessica Harris—respected food historian and author of multiple books on culinary traditions from the African diaspora—predicted it would be among the next “in” cuisines. Her prediction was correct coinciding now with consumers’ increased awareness of racial inequality and support of Black Lives Matter. Check out her cookbooks as well as Bibi’s Kitchen for excellent coverage of not only the foods from the African continent but also the history and the heritage of this part of the world. Whiteman also predicts “a bumper crop of Black Chefs’ cookbooks.”
The changing restaurant scene
According to the NYT “to date more than 110,000 restaurants, or one out of every six in the country, have closed, and more than two million jobs have not yet been recovered.” Whiteman dares to state that this is not necessarily a bad thing. Like shopping centers, the country has too many restaurants. He predicts this shaking out will have positive benefits for the industry. “If higher prices mean fewer people dining out, then there’s a reckoning and rebalancing to be done for the industry’s business model.” This includes a fairer distribution of payroll dollars to restaurant workers plus a rethinking of landlords’ grossly inflated rents. There will be other major restaurant-related shifts in 2021, many associated with reduced human interaction and increased customer safety. This includes no more printed menus, the expanded use of the QR code for ordering, and the end of both buffets and shared plates.
Chefs’ diversification
Chefs around America are exploring other methods of generating income to keep their businesses afloat. This includes ghost kitchens offering meal kits and restaurant dining experiences for home delivery. Look for more proprietary spice mixes, BBQ sauces, and other pantry goods in your supermarket or on-line. But branding does not stop with food. Other opportunities such as dinner ware, kitchen attire, and blankets for wintertime outdoor dining will also help sustain American chefs’ visibility while consumers anxiously await a return to normalcy.
With indoor dining closed yet again in New York City, a group of enterprising restaurants recently introduced Summerlong Supper Club, a 100% charitable 16-dinner program designed to make sure some of New Yorkers’ favorite restaurants are still in business when summer rolls around. For $50 per person, subscribers will receive a weekly three-course meal from a “dream team” of local restaurants representing different ethnic cuisines.
Pop-up dining experiences beyond a chef’s kitchen, will continue to prosper. Last month I spent Christmas with friends at Blantyre in the Berkshires primarily because Daniel Boulud had taken over the kitchen after a successful pop-up arrangement. Boulud is the poster boy for other chefs who, when forced to shutter their restaurants, have found innovative ways to keep cooking, expand their brand, and increase off-premise revenue.
Fermenting, preserving, and canning by cooks and chefs
With increased time at home, consumers are looking to old-fashioned methods for preserving their foods, such as canning and fermenting. This is particularly true if the fruits and vegetables are grown in their home gardens. Chefs, too, have joined the bandwagon by commercially preparing food products carrying their restaurant logos.
Vegan/plant-based foods
Two years ago, TarteTatinTales talked about the burgeoning interest in vegan and vegetarian diets and food options. This year Whiteman predicts the continuation of this trend along with his “Flexitarian” as the diet of the year, “with the edge on Veg.” He attributes this to our rethinking of our meat consumption as “being better for our health and our environment.” Further, scientists, farmers, and chefs have been busy at work developing new plant-based and even cell-based foods which Whiteman says will hit “the supermarket shelves in 2021…many of them ‘faux food’ because they don’t exist in nature.”
Lower alcohol and non-alcoholic beverages
Many adult Americans turned to alcohol during the onset of Covid-19. While some of us are continuing to relax at night with cocktails or wine, others are returning to their pre-coronavirus shopping habits and buying less alcohol. In fact, during the month of May last year, according to Nielsen, sales for nonalcoholic beer were up 44%. Traditional beer and alcoholic beverage producers are now incentivized to create products for “sober curious drinkers.” The expanding selection of products from hard seltzers to lower alcohol wine and beers to non-alcoholic spirits (such as Monday Gin and Ritual Zero Proof Tequila) are making the experience more intriguing for alcohol avoiders seeking a proper adult drink.
As we venture into Dry January, you might also want to pick up a copy of Julia Bainbridge’s new book, Good Drinks. Bainbridge canvassed bartenders from across the country to amass a vast collection of mocktails—a terms she disdains. Why? Because she feels it diminishes the image of a professionally created non-alcoholic drink. The oddest sounding cocktail in her book is called “Change of Address” which features Coca-Cola, soy sauce, maple syrup, among other ingredients, served over shaved ice. Despite its odd composition, Bainbridge claims it is worth a try. As I am less experimental than she, I opted for the ever-popular Paloma for this week’s recipe, with and without alcohol.
“Immunity is the new sustainability.”
As Whiteman explains it, “Immunity is the new buzzword for sustaining the body…because consumers are avid about repelling viruses and other infectious assaults.” Without a doubt, Coronavirus has taken over our lives and has made us all super conscious of fresh and packaged foods which carry healing capabilities. Whiteman singles out these particular foods as examples of what we will seek out to protect our bodies from various illnesses: “Packaged foods using turmeric, zinc, ginger, green tea, specialty honey, mushrooms, chia seeds, CBD plus ‘healing’ herbs and fermented foods such as kimchi, kombucha and sauerkraut.” Like many Americans obsessed with health and wellness, I’ve discovered Nature’s Path organic golden turmeric cereal. When I eat it for breakfast, I feel reassured knowing the medicinal properties of this key ingredient, turmeric, are good for my body.
Emerging lockdown trends
Here is a quick rundown of other trends which are starting to gain steam: more single-serving drinks in cans (which can be recycled!); chickpeas used in flour and pasta; seaweed as snacks replacing kale; Southern cuisine; big, bold, and exotic spices from Eastern Mediterranean, North African, East/Southeast Asian, and India; eco-conscious packaging; alternatives to cane sugar; a return to a proper breakfast; hotel rooms converted into private dining spaces; immigrant cooking by first generation chefs using heritage recipes; and air fryers, the latest kitchen devise used to give deep-fried taste without the mess or greasiness.
Full disclosure. The addition of the air fryers was last minute and did not appear in any of my research. However, my muse, Jennifer Spina, told me it was so and I believe her.
If anyone received an air fryer as a holiday gift and would like to share a recipe, please send it my way. Keep track of these two trend posts. We will compare notes early 2022 to see which of these had lasting power and which were short lived. Wishing all of you a year of healthy, delicious eating. And please stay safe.